Who Starts as Favorite at Indian Wells 2026: Alcaraz, Sinner, or Djokovic?
An overview before the start of one of the year's biggest tournaments, Indian Wells.
Before the first-round matches begin at Indian Wells, it’s worth taking a look at the numbers from this period for the three big favorites of the men's tournament. We already know who is in form and who isn't quite there, but let's see in more detail how the situation stands at the start of the "fifth Grand Slam".
Carlos Alcaraz - The Winning Machine
The results speak for themselves: 12 matches played, 12 won, and a 100% win rate. Two titles already won this season (Australian Open and Doha), no matches lost. It's the kind of figure that says it all: Alcaraz is devastating.
He wins over nine out of ten service games - 91%, to be exact. It's a huge percentage, meaning opponents can barely shake him when he serves. But what makes him truly lethal is his return game, which simply "cuts". He wins 30% of return games, applying constant pressure on anyone's serve.
"Alcaraz is in the best form of the three top seeds. Undefeated, with titles, with long matches won. He comes to Indian Wells like a tank."
On his serve, the Spaniard reaches difficult moments quite often (15.5 pressure moments/match), but he manages to save 75% of them. Moreover, if a break point is reached from the pressure point, Alcaraz manages to annihilate 72% of them. It is hard, very hard, to break Alcaraz.
The only place he still has room to grow? He converts only 40% of break opportunities — meaning sometimes he "wastes" the pressure he creates. If he raises that figure too, he becomes almost unstoppable.
Jannik Sinner — The Efficient Machine
The world number two comes with a record of seven wins and two losses this season - the numbers are a bit more modest compared to Alcaraz, but context matters. He failed to defend his title at the Australian Open, a tournament he seemed to have "subscribed to" in recent years. He then failed to reach the final in Doha, was eliminated in the quarters by Arthur Fils, and missed another final against Alcaraz. Things don't look too good, and perhaps Indian Wells will give the Italian the chance to return to a "top" trend.
The most impressive aspect we notice about Sinner? 12.2 aces per match on average. That is a high figure. This means opponents are forced to "earn" the hard points, not just play them — because Sinner solves a good chunk of them himself with his serve. Combined with a percentage of 91% service games won (equal to Alcaraz!), the picture is clear: on serve, Sinner remains lethal.
On return, it's a bit more balanced - Sinner wins 40% of total return points, with an important difference: he is much better on the opponent's second serve (58%) than on the first (29%). A weak serve will be taxed instantly by the Italian."Sinner does not have a spectacular player profile. He has a precise and methodical player profile. Sinner is solid, disciplined, and hard to take out of the game. He comes to Indian Wells as a serious favorite, even if his numbers aren't as good as Alcaraz's."
A question mark comes from the area of pressure moments on serve, where he wins 64% — less than Alcaraz (75%). On the other hand, Sinner exposes himself to fewer pressure moments per match (only 12.4), which makes him more consistent than Alcaraz on serve. But the 10% difference between how the two handle pressure on serve could be decisive in a head-to-head match.
Novak Djokovic — How Much More Can the ATP Veteran Handle?
And we arrive at the most interesting story of the tournament: Novak Djokovic, 38 years old, at Indian Wells in 2026, the third favorite.
His numbers this season say something surprisingly good: 5 wins, a single loss, in the final lost against Alcaraz at the Australian Open. An 83% win rate and a single tournament played. Not bad at all for someone who, theoretically, should be "fading out" according to the biological calendar.
Qualifying for the AO final, that incredible victory in the semifinals against Sinner, is already a moment that will remain high in tennis history.
"Djokovic is far from finished, but he isn't the Djokovic of 2021-2023 anymore. He comes to Indian Wells as a player who can win the title, but who needs everything to go right for him."
But the numbers also tell another story, more nuanced. Djokovic wins differently than the other two. He doesn't have the explosive serve of Sinner (8.3 aces per match compared to 12.2) nor the total dominance of Alcaraz. Instead, he has something that isn't easily learned: he knows how to win the points that matter most. He saves 74% of break points, wins 61% of pressure points on serve. His matches become hard and long - 31.7 games on average per match (though only in best of five sets for now), but he wins more often than he loses in these marathons.
On return, he is efficient on opponents' second serve (54%), but more vulnerable on the first (31%). And he comes to the net often — 27.2 net points per match - but the efficiency is lower than the other two (62% vs 74%).
The most worrying figure? 50% of his matches included 3 or more double faults. That is a lot and may signal that the serve is no longer as stable as in the golden era. This exposes him to many pressure points per match (20.6), which he manages to save at a somewhat satisfactory percentage (61%, as I mentioned above).
The Verdict: Predictions and Dark Horses
If we rely strictly on 2026 form, Carlos Alcaraz is the #1 favorite. He is the only one of the three with zero defeats and two titles already won, one being a Grand Slam. He is in that zone where everything works for him.
Sinner is the common-sense favorite — disciplined, consistent, hard to beat. Even if he doesn't shine as brightly, he's the type of player who goes far in tournaments without having "consumed" anything on the way. He is clearly the second favorite, with high chances for the title.
Djokovic is the great unknown. At 38, with long matches and some question marks on his serve, any prediction about him is risky. Nole is in good form and remains an unpredictable opponent for anyone. Sinner knows best, he felt it on his own skin.
Alexander Zverev was close to eliminating Alcaraz at the Australian Open, in the semifinals. Since then, the German hasn't had outstanding results. In Acapulco, he lost in the second round to Kecmanovic. So, he doesn't seem to be quite among the favorites, but watch out, all top players mobilize much better at a Masters tournament.
Alex de Minaur has already won an ATP 500 tournament in Amsterdam and seems to be in good form. He then lost in the first round at Acapulco against a player outside the Top 100 (Kypson), but overall the Australian's game seems to be good. Chances? Quite small, considering the tournament has every chance of ending with the classic final, Alcaraz-Sinner. We shall see.
After nearly eliminating Djokovic at the Australian Open, but retiring due to an injury, it seems Lorenzo Musetti will play at Indian Wells. The Italian doesn't have many matches this season, he lost a final in Hong Kong against Bublik and then the adventure in Australia ended badly, with an injury. Let's see if Lorenzo is back on his feet physically, but also mentally.
"What do we think? Most likely, the long-awaited final will materialize and we will see Alcaraz and Sinner in the last act, and we see Alcaraz as the winner after a tough match. However, tennis is unpredictable, and what the numbers say isn't always the same as the reality on the court. But it will certainly be a great show."
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